Probability and uncertainty

In many ways, the world around us is uncertain[1]. We have developed ways to describe our level of uncertainty, and attempt to predict uncertain events. When an event might occur, we can say there is some probability[2] that it might happen.

Probability is typically expressed in percentages. For example, there might be a 30% probability of rain tomorrow. Predicting the outcome of some event is called forecasting.[3]

Conditional probability[edit | edit source]

Some events depend on previous events. For example, the weather tomorrow is dependent[4] on the weather today. Dynamic systems[5][6][7] are those, such as weather, where the current situation is sensitive to previous situations.

References[edit | edit source]

  1. Uncertainty’, Wikipedia, <>
  2. Probability’, Wikipedia, <>
  3. Forecasting’, Wikipedia, <>
  4. Conditional Probability’, Wikipedia, <>
  5. Dynamical System’, Wikipedia <>
  6. System Dynamics’, Wikipedia, <>
  7. Systems Thinking’, Wikipedia, <>